Shares of Australia’s Oil Search Ltd (OSH.AX: Quote, Profile , Research) jumped 12 percent after a report that oil giant PetroChina (0857.HK: Quote, Profile , Research) may make a US$5 billion takeover bid to secure more gas reserves for the world’s fastest-growing major economy.
PetroChina (0857.HK: Quote, Profile , Research) is buying supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to feed China’s voracious energy demand and has already struck two deals this month for other Australian projects that could be worth almost US$50 billion, which analysts said showed it was prepared to pay a market price for the first time.
“The world is energy hungry, and the Chinese are hunting,” said Shaw Stockbroking analyst Luke Maffei in Melbourne.
PetroChina was considering bidding for Oil Search via CNPC Exploration, a joint venture with its state-owned parent CNPC, Monday’s South China Morning Post said, citing unnamed sources. Some European firms were also considering bidding, it added.
Oil Search is Australia’s third biggest listed exploration and production firm and operates all the oil and gas production in Papua New Guinea, where it also has roughly 30 percent stakes in early-stage LNG projects led by Exxon Mobil (XOM.N: Quote, Profile , Research) and BG Group (BG.L: Quote, Profile , Research). It said it had had no formal approach from anyone.
“PetroChina has some interest in expanding overseas but for any specific project, until it’s signed, we have no comment,” a PetroCHina spokesman said.
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The report of a possible bid drove Oil Search’s shares up as much as 19.4 percent in early trade, but they gave up some gains to trade up 11.7 percent at A$4.30 by 0827 GMT. The broader market <.AXJO> was down 0.6 percent. Petrochina fell 0.5 percent.
The reported bid would value Oil Search at A$5.31 a share, compared to an all-time high of A$4.64, based on shares on issue.
PetroChina ended 0.5 percent lower in a broader Hong Kong market <.HSI> that fell 1.2 percent.
FUELLING THE DRAGON
China, which is fighting worsening air pollution from burning coal and oil, wants to triple use of cleaner-burning gas by 2020. But it faces a supply gap from around 2012, the same period when Oil Search’s LNG plans in Papua New Guinea would come onstream.
“For China it makes sense, definitely,” said JP Morgan analyst Brynjar Eirik Bustnes. “It’s probably not super-lucrative for PetroChina shareholders, but it’s better than letting the money sit in the bank.”
PetroChina, which is readying a $6 billion domestic share issue, this month agreed LNG deals with Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L: Quote, Profile , Research) and Woodside Petroleum (WPL.AX: Quote, Profile , Research).
The LNG plans that Oil Search is involved in are still far from that stage. The BG plan has yet to confirm it has enough gas supplies to go ahead and Exxon’s more advanced scheme has yet to complete the design stage. Still, other parties are circling.
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“We have had discussions with a number of people who are interested in participating in the gas venture in PNG,” said a spokeswoman for Oil Search, which is 17.6 percent-owned by the government of Papua New Guinea.
Exxon’s plan would require a $9-$10 billion investment to produce 6-7 million tonnes per year (mtpa). BG’s plan would produce 7.2 mtpa, almost enough to cover a market such as Taiwan, a big LNG buyer.
Oil Search also has projects in Yemen, Egypt, Libya and Iraq, with proven and probable oil reserves of 1.43 billion barrels at the end of 2006. But the oil is not the main draw for PetroChina.
“Of course what they’re going after is the LNG assets in Papua New Guinea,” said Bustnes.
Costs of making LNG have soared over the past three years as prices for steel and labour rocketed and the wilting value of dollar-denominated sales eroded expected profit margins.
Like other LNG suppliers, Oil Search needs buyers to commit to long-term deals to make the super-cooled gas economic. China’s renewed interest has boosted the chances of turning projects into reality, and strong demand means it is now a sellers’ market.
“There are players who are happy to put capital in to get some of these projects off the ground and speed them up,” said Maffei. “Demand is strong in that part of the world.”
For a story about the effect of Chinese demand on Australian LNG projects, please click on [ID:nSYD93496]
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